Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant…
S&P 500 Returns – Strong vs. Weak Periods U.S. stock market returns do tend to be weaker on average during the summer months (May–October) compared to the winter months (November–April). However, investors should consider seasonality…
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past five decades, five bull markets have lasted over two years, averaging 8 years and gaining 288%. Since the current bull market is just 32 months old and has…
S&P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street’s S&P 500 forecasts for year-end 2025 have not fully recovered from the recent tariff turmoil. The average outlook has become more cautious, with a wide spread between optimistic…
U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes…
Small Cap Equity Positioning With small-cap equity allocations at the 23rd percentile, there is considerable room for increased exposure—especially for investors focused on long-term growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology sector has recorded strong inflows over the past year due to rapid artificial intelligence adoption and expansion, the energy sector has faced outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
S&P 500 After Two Month Gains of 20% or More More good news for bulls: Historically, after a two-month gain of over 20%, the S&P 500 has never been lower 1, 3, 6, or 12…
S&P 500 2025 Target JPMorgan has reversed its previously cautious stance on the U.S. stock market, raising its year-end 2025 S&P 500 Index target from 5,200 to 6,000, driven by strong fundamentals, tech sector momentum,…
Performance – S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US Despite rebounding after the tariff pause, the S&P 500 has not regained global equity leadership; European and Asian stocks have outperformed in 2025 due to better…
Risk Parity Model Portfolio Weights In risk-parity strategies, the current equity allocation is at the 8th percentile—well below the median—reflecting a preference for safer assets despite the ongoing equity rally. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation