The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In February, the U.S. LEI increased by 0.1%, showing positive momentum for the U.S. economy. However, it still signals potential headwinds for future growth. Image:…
U.S. Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals and defensives are reliable indicators of investor sentiment. Anticipated economic growth prompts investors to favor cyclicals, resulting in their outperformance over defensives. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Indices The relative multiple between Value and Growth remains significantly low. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. S&P 500 In the past, there has been a consistent pattern where high levels of optimism among retail investors in the financial markets, along with low volatility, have often signaled short-term peaks…
S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity.…
Interest Rates – Expectations for the Fed’s Policy Rate Path Nomura expects 25 bp rate cuts in July and December 2024, as well as four additional 25 bp rate cuts in 2025. Image: Nomura
Do You Believe the Risk of an Equity Market Correction at Some Point Over the Next 3-6 Months Is High or Low? JPMorgan’s survey reveals that 82% of their clients anticipate a high likelihood of…
FMS Recession Expectations Is it unlikely that the U.S. economy will face a recession in the next 12 months? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
FMS Investors – Net % Expecting Lower Long-Term Rates A decreasing number of FMS investors are anticipating lower bond yields. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
FMS Investors – Net % Overweight Equities – Net % Overweight Cash FMS investors still show a greater inclination to invest in the stock market and less interest in holding cash, indicating their ongoing preference…