U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The projected ballooning of the U.S. federal debt by 2050 could have negative impacts on the U.S. economy, with more interest payments, limited resources, and potential constraints on growth and government responsiveness. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China Property Stocks The sharp decline in Chinese property stocks, reaching levels unseen since the Global Financial Crisis, is worrisome considering the crucial role of the real estate sector in China’s economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Monthly Chart The gradual approach of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield towards the secular target carries significant implications for various sectors of the economy and financial markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E and 10-Year U.S. Real Yield Is the current disconnect between the valuation of U.S. stocks and the impact of real interest rates on the economy expected to be temporary? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GDP Consensus Forecasts Optimistic U.S. GDP forecasts suggest that there is confidence in the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Treasury Bill Yield by Maturity A default by the U.S. government could have significant negative effects on the economy, including financial market disruptions and a loss of faith in the United States by international investors. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Budget Deficit as a % of GDP The trend of elevated deficits and increasing debt can have potential long-term implications for the U.S. economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Recession – NBER Indicators The NBER indicators do not suggest that the U.S. economy is in recession at this time. Image: Apollo Global Management
U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters recession over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks with Stable Growth vs. Volatile Growth Rolling 12-Month Excess Return and ISM Manufacturing Index (Inverted) Stable stocks tend to outperform in a slowing economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research