Gold and U.S. 10 Year Real Rate
Gold and U.S. 10 Year Real Rate During the next recession, when fear skyrockets, gold could outperform rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Profits vs. Assets
U.S. Corporate Profits vs. Assets U.S. corporate profits are near 20-year lows relative to fixed assets. The alternative to a recovery in corporate profits is the increasing risk of recession. Image: BofA Global Research
Momentum to Value Rotation
Momentum to Value Rotation The rotation into value suggests a rebound in global economic growth, not a recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS
U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS The current divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record. It is possible to close the gap “down” (recession) or “up” (reflation). Image: BofA Global Research
Russel 2000 and Unprofitable Small Caps
Russel 2000 and Unprofitable Small Caps The proportion of small caps that are unprofitable has climbed to nearly 30%. This level is generally only observed during recessions. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections
Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections Chart showing that outside of recessions, U.S. presidential elections did not contribute much to the volatility of equities, rates and forex. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap
Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Around first rate cut, when growth stocks and large-cap stocks outperform, it does not suggest a recession is coming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Growth Over Time
EPS Growth Over Time This chart shows that negative EPS growth doesn’t always mean a recession is coming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Asset Classes Total Return since 2009
Asset Classes Total Return since the Great Recession The chart shows how asset classes and economic indicators have performed since the Great Recession. The S&P 500 is the big winner. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve
Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve Keep in mind that the Fed has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. And currently, the 30-year Treasury rate minus 10-year Treasury rate spread has a normal upward slope, like in the mid-1990s when the economy was growing. The chart below shows that the…