S&P 500 Target for 2025

S&P 500 Target for 2025 In the coming months, robust earnings, a weaker dollar, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and easing recession fears are expected to make U.S. equities a key driver of the global equity rally. Image: Bloomberg

Median S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950

Median S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 In the absence of recession, short-lived market drawdowns are often followed by strong recoveries, offering attractive returns to investors who stay the course rather than selling in panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Median S&P 500 Performance During 10% Corrections

Median S&P 500 Performance During 10% Corrections If there is no recession, U.S. stocks tend to do well after market corrections, often rebounding strongly and offering attractive returns to investors who stay the course. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Average S&P 500 Returns Following 35 Corrections of 10% Since 1950

Average S&P 500 Returns Following 35 Corrections of 10% Since 1950 Market corrections of 10% in the S&P 500 are a normal aspect of market cycles, often presenting long-term investors with attractive buying opportunities, especially in the absence of a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts

S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts Historically, U.S. stocks have demonstrated robust performance in the two years following the start of a Fed rate cut cycle, particularly during periods without recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Rolling 12-Month % Change in the S&P 500

Rolling 12-Month % Change in the S&P 500 An economic slowdown or a hawkish pivot from the Fed could have a substantial impact on U.S. equities, potentially causing declines even if a recession does not occur. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Market Concentration vs. 10-Year Annualized Forward Returns

S&P 500 Market Concentration vs. 10-Year Annualized Forward Returns High concentration in the S&P 500 may boost short-term performance, but it often signals lower future returns, particularly during non-recessionary periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 and U.S. 2s-10s Yield Curve

S&P 500 and U.S. 2s-10s Yield Curve Since the late 1950s, 10 of the last 12 yield curve steepening cycles have coincided with U.S. recessions, highlighting the yield curve’s effectiveness as a predictor of economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Research