Gold and U.S. 10 Year Real Rate

Gold and U.S. 10 Year Real Rate During the next recession, when fear skyrockets, gold could outperform rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. Assets

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. Assets U.S. corporate profits are near 20-year lows relative to fixed assets. The alternative to a recovery in corporate profits is the increasing risk of recession. Image: BofA Global Research

Momentum to Value Rotation

Momentum to Value Rotation The rotation into value suggests a rebound in global economic growth, not a recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS The current divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record. It is possible to close the gap “down” (recession) or “up” (reflation). Image: BofA Global Research

Russel 2000 and Unprofitable Small Caps

Russel 2000 and Unprofitable Small Caps The proportion of small caps that are unprofitable has climbed to nearly 30%. This level is generally only observed during recessions. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections

Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections Chart showing that outside of recessions, U.S. presidential elections did not contribute much to the volatility of equities, rates and forex. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap

Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Around first rate cut, when growth stocks and large-cap stocks outperform, it does not suggest a recession is coming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

EPS Growth Over Time

EPS Growth Over Time This chart shows that negative EPS growth doesn’t always mean a recession is coming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Asset Classes Total Return since 2009

Asset Classes Total Return since the Great Recession The chart shows how asset classes and economic indicators have performed since the Great Recession. The S&P 500 is the big winner. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve

Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve Keep in mind that the Fed has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. And currently, the 30-year Treasury rate minus 10-year Treasury rate spread has a normal upward slope, like in the mid-1990s when the economy was growing. The chart below shows that the…