Valuation – Price-to-Forward Earnings Ratios The U.S. stock market maintains a premium valuation compared to global markets, with the exception of India, leaving little room for error as it’s priced for perfection. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sector ETF Flows In 2024, the financial sector ETF (XLF) saw substantial inflows, making it the leading performer in attracting new capital, while the energy sector ETF (XLE) experienced significant outflows, ranking it as the worst performer. Image: GS Global Banking and Markets
Seasonality – S&P 500 Monthly Returns The performance of the U.S. stock market in January is often considered as a key indicator for the year ahead. Although January’s stock returns can seem erratic, the median return has been around 1.5% since 1950. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contribution to Annual S&P 500 Return The ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 have significantly influenced its performance in recent years, driving returns while raising important questions about the risks associated with market concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Despite rising 10-year real U.S. Treasury yields indicating tighter financial conditions, the stock market remains unaffected due to favorable economic indicators, strong corporate earnings forecasts, and anticipated supportive monetary policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real Returns for U.S. Dollar-based Assets by Quarter Century While there have been periods of volatility and negative returns, real stock market returns over the past 25 years have been positive and in line with long-term historical averages. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line The S&P 500 advance-decline line serves as an essential indicator of market trends and sentiment. When it hits an all-time high, it typically signals positive news for the U.S. stock market. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research
What Do You Think Is Currently the Most Crowded Trade? For FMS investors, the “Long Magnificent Seven” trade continues to be the most crowded, largely attributed to the impressive performance and market leadership of these tech stocks. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Job Openings and S&P 500 While job openings provide a snapshot of current economic conditions, the stock market reflects investor sentiment and expectations about the future. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Volatility The concentration of large-cap stocks has significantly impacted market volatility, with these stocks accounting for a record share of it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research