U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Since 1790 Factors like inflation, economic growth, and the Fed’s monetary policy can all impact the trajectory and duration of the U.S. bond bear market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Duration and Magnitude of Major Nonrecessionary S&P 500 Index Declines According to Morgan Stanley, the current bear market rally in U.S. equities remains within historical norms. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Volatility – S&P 500 vs. 12-Month Count of Daily Changes of -1% or Lower Is this the end of the bear market, as volatility has peaked? Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Two consecutive quarters of gains after a bear market could suggest the start of a new bull market. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Performance – S&P 500 Relative to Gold The performance of the S&P 500 relative to gold could suggest that the bear market is not over. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
AAII Bullish Sentiment Individual investor sentiment must improve significantly if the current uptrend in U.S. stock prices is more than just a typical bear market rally. Image: BofA Global Research
Total U.S. ETF Flows by Asset Class Inflows to U.S. ETFs are very strong this year, despite the bear market. Image: BofA ETF Research
Valuation – Shiller CAPE P/E Ratio Does the Shiller CAPE P/E ratio suggest that the bear market is not over? Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 and Percent of S&P 500 Members Above Their 200-Day Moving Average Does the bear market rally have more upside? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Index vs. MACD Long-Term Signal The monthly MACD does not yet suggest the end of the bear market. Image: Real Investment Advice