Indexed S&P 500 Return – Market Hours vs. Overnight Following the April market turmoil, most of the rally has happened during regular U.S. trading hours, with overnight returns remaining relatively muted. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street’s S&P 500 forecasts for year-end 2025 have not fully recovered from the recent tariff turmoil. The average outlook has become more cautious, with a wide spread between optimistic and pessimistic projections. Image: Yahoo Finance
Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage Hedge fund gross leverage remains extremely elevated, while net leverage fell sharply during recent market turmoil but has since rebounded significantly, though it is not yet back to highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long as there are no concrete signs of tariff reductions or de-escalation in trade tensions. Image: Deutche Bank
Gold While the outlook for gold remains bullish due to falling interest rates and sustained central bank purchases, it is currently viewed as expensive when compared to oil prices and the average wage of a U.S. worker. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Commodities – Commodity Prices In a non-recessionary environment, lower U.S. interest rates can lead to an increase in commodity prices, particularly metals, gold, and brent crude oil. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Which of the Following Assets Will Produce the Best Returns? Are FMS investors too bullish on oil? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Energy Sector vs. Fed Funds Rate Should investors expect oil prices to fall when the Fed hikes rates? Image: Real Investment Advice
Performance – What Asset Class Do You Think Will Outperform in 2021? FMS investors expect emerging markets, the S&P 500 and oil to outperform in 2021. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey