History of Oil Prices Since 1861

History of Oil Prices Since 1861 This chart is a good illustration of oil price volatility over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve

The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve Great charts showing that a flat/inverted yield curve implies weaker U.S. GDP growth, lower equity returns, and higher volatility. Image: Pictet Asset Management

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Longview Economics, Macrobond

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Image: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop

Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated

Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. You may also like “How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?“ Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Performance of Hedge Fund Index vs. S&P 500

Performance of Hedge Fund Index vs. S&P 500 Hedge fund returns have not been as good as those of the S&P 500, but volatility has been lower. Image: Richardson Wealth

S&P 500 Index – Number of 5% Corrections Per Year

S&P 500 Index – Number of 5% Corrections Per Year Since 1990, there has been an average of 3.3 separate 5% declines for the S&P 500 per year. In a late business cycle, volatility increases. This is why, in 2019, we could see several drops of 5%. Image: LPL Research