Global Real M1 Growth Leads Global Manufacturing PMI by around 6 Months When global real M1 money supply growth is very low, it does not bode well for global economic activity. Image: The Wall Street Journal
Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World Global ex-US manufacturing PMI is below 50 (contraction). We will see if the United States can go it alone in the coming months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011“ Image: Topdown Charts
Earnings – S&P 500 LTM EPS Growth YoY Morgan Stanley’s non-PMI leading earnings indicator suggests that forward EPS estimates are too high. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Stock Market Performance When Market Fell > 8% in 6 Consecutive Losing Sessions This chart shows the U.S. stock market performance since 1948, when the market fell more than 8% in 6 consecutive losing sessions, with PMI > 50 and PMI < 50. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Empire State Manufacturing Survey and ISM Manufacturing Index Despite the coronavirus, both regional PMIs suggest an increase in U.S. ISM manufacturing this month. Image: Swedbank Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5% in January and suggests faster expansion in January than in December. Image: Oxford Economics
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the U.S. 2+10Y bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the good correlation between ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and U.S. GDP. Image: Piper Jaffray
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield The decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields has been in line with falling ISM PMI. Picture Source: Deutsche Bank