Advanced Stock Market Forecast 97% Correlation since 1970 Stock Market Valuation Short- and Long-Term Forecasts Bull and Bear Indicator Equity Risk Premium R² = 0.94 since 1970 For Professional and Individual View More Subscribe Now! Check out our Stock Market Forecasting Models “Your results are very interesting” Howard Marks Legendary investor Our Features Five Advanced…
GWIM Equity Allocation as % Assets Under Management Equity allocation from BofA’s private clients currently stands at 60%. This allocation percentage suggests confidence in the potential for growth and returns in equity markets. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Real S&P 500 and Real GDP The excesses of the U.S. stock market tend to correct themselves over time. Image: Real Investment Advice
VIX Index and VIX Futures (Noncommercial Net Long) Even though the VIX is retreating, investors still expect volatility to return to the market. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – Defensive Assets vs. Assets More Sensitive to the Economy Valuations suggest that we’re a long way from a return to normal times, as the market remains concerned about long-term growth. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Correlation Between S&P 500 Index and MSCI EAFE Index Since 1997, the high correlation between U.S. and international equity markets suggests that the MSCI EAFE may only offer a slight risk/return benefit as a complement to a U.S. equity portfolio. Image: First Eagle Investment Management, LLC
U.S. Equities and The World: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion Since the 2009 low, the strong performance of the U.S. markets comes from earnings growth (73%) and multiple expansion (27%). You may also like “S&P 500 Return: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Dow Jones Transportation Average vs. S&P 500 This interesting chart suggests that the Dow Jones Transportation Average underperforms in secular bull markets. Actually, the S&P 500 had higher returns when the Dow Jones Transportation Average experienced negative momentum. Image: Oppenheimer & Co.
Dow Jones Index since 1896 This great chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index since 1896 and lengthy periods of time with zero returns (dividends are not included). That’s the reason why we develop stock market forecasting models. Image: Mohnish Pabrai
Estimated Number of Hedge Funds Launched or Closed since 2008 Can hedge funds deliver higher returns than passive investing? Not really. But many investors still think they can achieve higher returns with active trading than with passive investing. The chart below shows that it is really hard to outperform the market. As Warren Buffett said,…