Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in U.S. Dollar vs. Change in S&P 500 EPS While there are instances where the U.S. Dollar and S&P 500 EPS may move in tandem, the overall statistical relationship is weak. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Difference Between Realized and Consensus Estimate of S&P 500 EPS While S&P 500 companies continue to beat EPS estimates, indicating underlying strength, recent data suggests this trend is moderating compared to previous quarters Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS – Potential U.S. Tax Impact on Earnings Per Share Donald Trump’s plan to cut the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings per share, potentially increasing EPS by 4% and improving profitability for many companies in the index. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 EPS Growth Consensus estimates suggest that 72% of S&P 500 companies are projected to report EPS growth in 3Q24, reflecting a broader trend of improving earnings outlooks across various sectors. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 EPS and Index Level Forecasts Over time, stock prices are driven by earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 is expected to see earnings per share growth of 8% in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth A rise in the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is suggesting positive growth in 1Q EPS, with expectations of outperforming the initial projections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth While EPS growth may be one factor influencing a company’s decision to repurchase its own shares, it is just one of many potential drivers of buyback activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS vs. Trend Do consensus EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 accurately reflect an optimistic outlook, or are they overly optimistic? Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth Economic growth is a driver of earnings growth, as it creates opportunities for businesses to expand their operations, increase sales, and generate higher profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Yield – IG Yield vs. TTM Buyback Yield Higher borrowing costs can discourage companies from engaging in stock buybacks. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy