Valuations and Peak of an Equities Rally Market participants are buzzing about an AI bubble with valuations sky-high. But ditching stocks now could mean missing the late-game rally—volatility shows we’re not in full-blown mania just yet. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500, Russell 2000, Stoxx 600 and EM Equities – 12-Month Forward EPS Consensus Estimates Market leadership is widening. U.S. small-caps are catching up fast as EPS growth fires up in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000—a clear sign the rally is broadening beyond the tech giants. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg
Equities – Global Valuation Range U.S. stocks remain priced at a hefty premium, while valuations outside the U.S. are closer to historical norms. That leaves global markets offering stronger relative value, even if they’re not a bargain in absolute terms. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and modest impacts on overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices and seek alternatives. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equities – 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and Share Prices Market optimism is fueled by hopes of resolving trade and geopolitical risks, but high S&P 500 valuations increase vulnerability. Without resolution or robust earnings growth, the risk of a market pullback rises. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities Despite some volatility and brief periods of outflows, flows into U.S. equities in 2025 have been running above the 24-year average, with projections pointing to a record year for inflows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – U.S. Equities vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward PE Ratios U.S. equities trade at historically high valuations versus global peers, with the premium widening. While strong fundamentals support this, it also poses risks if growth expectations decline or macroeconomic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank