U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Equal Weight Index / S&P 500 Index The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to its cap-weighted version has dropped to its weakest level since May 2003—a stark reminder of how top-heavy this market has become, with a handful of megacaps driving the rally. Image: Bloomberg
Relative Regional Weights Within Global Equities Wall Street’s dominance isn’t a fresh story, but it’s hitting a new peak. Since the financial crisis, U.S. markets — supercharged by tech, record earnings, and a relentless dollar — have pulled far ahead of the pack. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Global Equities vs. Global Bonds vs. Gold vs. World Portfolio Since 1950, the world portfolio has earned a real 4.1% annual return — global equities led with 7.3%, gold lagged at 2.5%, and global bonds barely reached 1.8%. The long-run verdict is clear: equities have won. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities Valuations vs. ROE Investors aren’t shy about paying a premium for U.S. stocks. The payoff? Superior returns on equity and earnings growth that few markets can match. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations and Peak of an Equities Rally Market participants are buzzing about an AI bubble with valuations sky-high. But ditching stocks now could mean missing the late-game rally—volatility shows we’re not in full-blown mania just yet. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500, Russell 2000, Stoxx 600 and EM Equities – 12-Month Forward EPS Consensus Estimates Market leadership is widening. U.S. small-caps are catching up fast as EPS growth fires up in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000—a clear sign the rally is broadening beyond the tech giants. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg
Equities – Global Valuation Range U.S. stocks remain priced at a hefty premium, while valuations outside the U.S. are closer to historical norms. That leaves global markets offering stronger relative value, even if they’re not a bargain in absolute terms. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and modest impacts on overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices and seek alternatives. Image: Bloomberg