The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy US-China trade conflict, US corporate debt burden, and emerging-markets crisis are the main global risks according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Image: World Economic Forum
Advanced Economy Recessions During Global Stress Periods Interesting chart showing the number of advanced economies in recession during global stress periods. Image: Oxford Economics
Global Growth Economy This chart shows the global real GDP growth and the long-term growth momentum. It’s never paid to bet against America. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Economy-Wide Firm AI Adoption Rate Since 2025 began, the adoption of artificial intelligence by firms has surged, largely due to proven increases in efficiency, reduced expenses, and improved profits industry-wide. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Strong performance in global equities is common after the Fed’s initial rate cut, particularly when the economy remains recession-free for the subsequent 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy The current landscape suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook among CEOs, which could lead to increased economic activity and investment as businesses prepare for potential growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FMS Net % Expecting Stronger Economy vs. S&P 500 FMS investors remain pessimistic, anticipating a weak global economy over the next 12 months, resulting in a widening gap between their macroeconomic views and the performance of U.S. equities. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession? The majority of FMS investors do not currently expect a U.S. recession in the next 18 months, while only 8% foresee one in the second half of 2024 and 35% predict a recession in 2025. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
FMS Investors – Net % Expecting Stronger Economy vs. MSCI ACWI The increased optimism among FMS investors on global growth can be seen as a positive sign, potentially indicating a more favorable outlook. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Global High Yield Bond Prices High-yield bonds are often called the “canary in the coal mine”, as they are seen as a leading indicator of the health of the economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy