U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would linger and growth would take a bigger hit. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold – Global Central Bank Holdings Central bank gold demand cycles respond to global economic and political factors. Recently, demand has increased amid financial instability, currency trust concerns, inflation, sanctions, and geopolitical conflicts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 1-Year U.S. Inflation by Party Inflation expectations in the U.S. over the coming 12 months differ sharply along partisan lines, with Republicans anticipating low inflation and Democrats expecting it to rise significantly. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs projects U.S. core CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in tariffs, and expects it to gradually ease to 2.6% in 2026 despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will reach 3.8% by December 2025. Although inflation is projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target, wage pressures are cooling and the labor market remains robust. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate While U.S. inflation breakeven rates have been moving higher recently, inflation expectations remain relatively well-anchored, which is crucial for maintaining price stability and economic confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Developed Market Core Inflation Rates In most major economies, inflation rates have significantly eased. While challenges remain, current trends suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually coming under control. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The combination of declining contributions from key sectors like shelter and transportation is expected to lead to a notable slowdown in U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months 50% of FMS investors expect stagflation in the global economy over the next 12 months, marked by stagnant growth and high inflation, while 34% foresee stagnation, leading to a cautious investment approach. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker currently remains below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, which is a crucial component of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research