Real Market Cap to GDP Ratio vs. Expected 10-Year Forward Returns The current elevated inflation-adjusted market capitalization to GDP ratio suggests the likelihood of anemic returns for the U.S. stock market over the next 10 years. Image: Real Investment Advice
Europe Market – Annualized Average of Monthly Real Price Returns High and falling inflation is generally a favorable environment for returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recessionary Bear Markets – S&P 500 Total Return Recessionary bear market lows can present good buying opportunities for long-term investors. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Average S&P 500 Returns Around Recessionary Bear Markets There are several indicators that can be used to confirm recessionary bear market lows. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Average S&P 500 Return Before and During Bear Markets The S&P 500 does not price in a U.S. recession. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Stock Market – Nifty Fifty Price Returns Will the U.S. stock market be “dead” money over the next 10 years? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Cumulative Returns Around Bear Market Bottoms Is the bear market bottom for the S&P 500 around 3,000? Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Largest S&P 500 10-Day Returns During Prior Bear Markets The recent U.S. equity rally has been very strong. Image: BofA Global Research
Returns – R-squared of Fed Balance Sheet YoY vs. YoY Change in S&P 500 Market Capitalization that is not Driven by Earnings Since 2010, the Fed balance sheet expansion tends to explain 52% of S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Bull Market – S&P 500 % Returns and Length of 50-Trading Day Breakouts Can the S&P 500 continue to rise? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Markets – 12-Month Return Boost/Drag vs. Average When the U.S. business cycle is in the expansion phase, the S&P 500 tends to have above-average returns over the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research