Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Throughout history, steep declines in consumer sentiment have often been followed by strong stock market rallies over the next year, making these sentiment lows a potentially reliable indicator of upcoming gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 After Two Month Gains of 20% or More More good news for bulls: Historically, after a two-month gain of over 20%, the S&P 500 has never been lower 1, 3, 6, or 12 months later. In fact, one year after such rallies, it has averaged gains of over 30%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After >19% in 27 Trading Days This is more than just another bear market rally, as the S&P 500 has jumped over 19% in 27 trading days. Historically, since 1950, similar rallies have averaged a 32% gain one year later, with positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance During Corrections In bear markets, sharp rallies are common but rarely signal a true bottom, as the primary downtrend tends to reassert itself afterward. Many investors believe the direction of U.S. stocks in 2025 remains uncertain. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Consecutive Days of Gains Although there are valid reasons for caution, the U.S. stock rebound is driven by strong momentum. Historically, momentum-driven rallies tend to persist longer than expected, even during major macroeconomic challenges. Image: Bloomberg
Trade Policy Uncertainty When trade policy uncertainty peaks, the S&P 500 often posts positive returns. Markets tend to over-discount risks during uncertain periods, and relief rallies are common once worst-case scenarios are avoided or resolved. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and NYSE >70% Advancers Six Times Over a Two Weeks Period Six trading days with NYSE advancers exceeding 70% within a two-week period historically signal a robust bullish phase—distinct from bear-market rallies—with an average 12-month S&P 500 gain of 22.6% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Instances When S&P 500 Longer-Term Rally Stalls Historically, periods of strong annual stock gains of over 20% followed by short-term flat performance have often led to weaker returns in the following 3 to 6 months. Image: MarketDesk Research
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Commodities Total Returns Several commodities have experienced significant rallies so far this year. Will this trend persist in the coming months? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China – Renminbi vs. Major Currencies The renminbi rallies substantially on China’s economic recovery. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond