“U.S. Stock Market, No Froth In Sight” Says Stock Market Sentiment Index Keep in mind that it is just another investor sentiment tool. But it does not show at all if the US stock market is overvalued or undervalued. See our stock market valuation model (99% correlation and R² = 0.97 since 1970).
Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is extremely difficult to predict. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The US stock market on October 19, 1987,…
Why a Low or Negative Equity Risk Premium Coincides with a Temporary Market Peak? Because it pushes investors into bonds rather than equities. This was the case in 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007 and 2018 before the market crash. The current equity risk premium is available to our subscribers. Our equity risk premium model has a great 97% correlation with…
Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession? When the stock market is VERY overvalued before a recession, it tends to be VERY undervalued. Like the swing of a pendulum, or the stretching of a rubber band, sooner or later it comes back very violently. This happened in 1973, 2000 and 2008. The US…
Why the US Stock Market Was Overvalued by 14.2% on Oct. 1, 2018 vs. 7.7% Today? Because the value of the forecast changes over time (blue dotted line). The US stock market short-term forecast (S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) for the next 12 months is available to our subscribers. This great prediction model is updated daily.…
What our Short-Term Forecast of the US Stock Market Has Been for the Past 12 Months? Here is what our short-term forecast of the US stock market has been for the past 12 months. This great prediction model is updated daily. It has a 97% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970…
Why Warren Buffett says that stocks are generally better than bonds? Our equity risk premium model shows when the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note. Since 1970, the 10-year Treasury Note was less attractive than the US stock market over a 10-year…
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-long-term-forecast.mp4 This great long-term forecast model displays the annual and total return expected for the next 10 years with a high degree of confidence This advanced model makes a forecast for the next 12 months, next 3 years, next 5 years, and next 10 years, with dividends reinvested. For each period, it displays the annual…
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-equity-risk-premium.mp4 This fabulous model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note The US stock market equity risk premium is the US stock market excess return for the next 10 years over the US 10-year Treasury Note. This is the premium…
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-short-term-forecast.mp4 This great tool shows the US stock market forecast for the next 12 months and the probability This advanced mathematical model extracts insights from multiple financial data and suggests a stock market short-term forecast for the next 12 months with a very high degree of confidence. This great prediction model is updated daily. It…