Shareholder Return vs. Free Cash Flow Thanks to low interest rates, shareholder return has exceeded free cash flow levels again. U.S. companies cannot spend more than they earn indefinitely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Flows into U.S. Domiciled Mutual Funds and ETFs Are money-market funds flows a contrarian indicator? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Fund Flows Investors are flooding into gold as fears of a global slowdown mount. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Government Bond Fund Flows Over the last six months, U.S. government bond fund flows have been the largest since 1985. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cross-Asset Valuation for the U.S. On an absolute basis, equities look expensive by historical standards, but relative valuations appear attractive, as free cash flow yield and ERP look cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Passive vs. Active Equity Funds Passive equity funds should surpass active by 2022, as active equity funds exhibit persistent outflows. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Passive Over Active Funds History suggests that investor outflows from active funds are smallest after periods of high policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…