Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down? The chart below shows that the U.S. economy is slowing down. The U.S.-China trade war and slower global growth are not helping. But as long as there is no recession, slowing down is fine.
Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25% This chart shows the average consumer price increase in percentage points for US consumers/firms after an increase in US import tariffs by 25 percentage points. Trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Image: Ifo…
Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 1, 2019 Traders are pricing in two full cuts in the fed funds target before the end of 2019. Fed funds futures for January 2020 imply an expected rate of only 1.85%. Let’s hope the Fed gets the message from the market. You may also like “Markets Have…
US Yield Curve Inversions since 1966 Currently, investors are concerned about yield curve inversions, because they have been a indicator of a coming recession. But not all inversions are the same. If the yield curve inversion is due to 10-year falling, then it is a “risk-off” trade, and not an economic cycle turn. This great chart…
Global Equities Are Pricing In A Global Recovery This chart shows that global equities tend to move ahead of changes in world trade volumes, with a two-month lag. Global equities are pricing in a global recovery, not global trade wars. Image: Absolute Strategy Research
Should Investors Be Concerned About Rising Oil Prices? Because the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient, it helps to contain oil prices in the long-term. Cheap oil is good for global economic growth, business and consumers. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Futures – Massive Pre-market Fear Since 1982 Since 1982, there have been two time periods of this massive pre-market fear: in 2002 and 2008, during the bear market. Image: Sentimentrader
What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think US-China trade uncertainty is the enemy of growth, and the impact of tariffs will weigh on corporate profits. But it looks like we’ll avert an earnings recession in 2019 if a trade deal with China is reached this summer. Image:…
World Exports Are Contracting – May 2019 Nowadays, exports of goods and services represent 29% of global GDP and trade tensions are causing a contraction in world exports. Image: First Eagle Investment Management
Stock Market Forecasting Models vs. US Stock Market – Growth of $1,000 As an example, the chart shows the growth of $1,000 since 1970, between the stock market forecasting models and the US stock market (compound return before taxes, fees and transactions costs – unleveraged, simulated long & short trades – quarterly basis & logarithmic…