S&P 500 Gains of 20% Happen More Than Losses Since 1950, the U.S. stock market has seen more years achieving gains of 20% or more than those with losses. This encourages investors to keep a long-term perspective and avoid panic selling—both crucial for building wealth. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Monthly Returns The performance of the U.S. stock market in January is often considered as a key indicator for the year ahead. Although January’s stock returns can seem erratic, the median return has been around 1.5% since 1950. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings of Tech Companies While U.S. tech stocks are riding a wave of strong performance driven by both hype and solid earnings fundamentals, non-tech stocks face prolonged stagnation in earnings. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Returns during the Santa Claus Rally Bulls celebrate the Santa Claus Rally, which typically sees U.S. stock prices rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, this rally has averaged a gain of 1.3%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply The current high market capitalization of U.S. equities relative to M2 suggests that investors are anticipating very optimistic future earnings and a stable economic outlook. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Equities as a Percent of Financial Assets With favorable market conditions and increasing stock valuations, Americans now hold more than 37% of all assets in equities, marking a record high. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Equity Fund Flows Last week, U.S. equity funds saw significant inflows, indicating that investors remain optimistic about the future performance of U.S. markets, despite concerns regarding interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs
Federal Debt Outstanding % GDP and Federal Interest Payments % GDP Recent interest rate cuts are easing federal interest expenses but raise concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, as interest payments are expected to increase significantly in the future. Image: TS Lombard
Bitcoin Annual Returns Over the past few years, Bitcoin has demonstrated a trend of three years of rising prices, followed by a significant decline in the fourth year. Can we expect this trend to continue in 2025? Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuations According to a macro model developed by Goldman Sachs, U.S. equities are suggested to be overvalued by more than 40%, raising concerns among market participants about long-term sustainability and future market corrections. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Stocks Above Their 20-Day Moving Average With only a small percentage of U.S. stocks trading above their 20-day moving average in a bull market, the S&P 500 index appears oversold, potentially signaling buying opportunities for investors Image: Bloomberg