S&P 500 Forecast Dividend Yield Is Above The 10-Year Treasury Yield Dividends remained stable or increased, while the 10-year Treasury yield has declined. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
The Fed’s Treasury Holdings by Maturity Nice chart showing the Fed’s Treasury holdings by maturity before and after the financial crisis. Image: Reuters
Demographics and U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield The trend in global savings has turned. The chart suggests that the dis-saving phase is likely to be inflationary. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Forward PE Ratio and Real 10-Year Treasury Rate Lower real 10-year Treasury rates suggest lower equity market multiples. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Heightened Correlations to U.S. Treasury Implied Volatility (MOVE) Followed by Higher Yields This chart suggests that balanced portfolios could suffer as U.S. Treasury yields generally rise after heightened correlation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 30-Year Treasury Bond Are U.S. equities a “buy”? The dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index is now higher than the yield from a 30-year Treasury bond. This is a rare phenomenon. But the equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and the Shortest Maturity U.S. Treasury Yielded Highest Houston, we have a problem! Image: OddStats
S&P 500 Index After U.S. Treasury 2-10 Year Yield Curve Inversion The chart shows that stocks outperform after yield curve inversion (green line: average year from 1950 to 2017). Image: LPL Research
The Fed vs. the 10-Year Treasury Yield The Fed fund curve suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield could fall below its all-time low of 1.32% in 2016. Image: Fidelity Investments
MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Longview Economics, Macrobond
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York