Every Fed Tightening Cycle Has Preceded a Slowdown in the ISM Manufacturing Index Since 1950, pullbacks in the ISM Manufacturing Index has coincided with a recession or market selloff, except in 1995. Image: U.S. Global Investors
Prescient Economist & Fed Expert Paul McCulley on No Recession Ahead & Fed’s Tightening Done Paul Allen McCulley is an American economist, strategist and former managing director at PIMCO. He speaks with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack about the Fed, credit bubbles, and why he does not expect a recession soon.
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Despite lower policy rates and the Fed’s decision to end quantitative tightening, U.S. financial conditions have tightened recently. For investors, the policy backdrop isn’t as friendly as the rate cuts imply. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions have eased to a 12-month low, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing, improved investor sentiment, tightening credit spreads, and a more stable economic outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Balance Sheet Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction in June 2025 and end quantitative tightening by September, which could influence market liquidity and interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Aggregate G6 Central Bank Balance Sheet The aggregate G6 central bank balance sheet is expected to continue decreasing in 2024 and 2025 as central banks unwind their pandemic-era asset purchase programs through quantitative tightening measures. Image: BofA Global Research
Interest Rates – Central Bank Policy Rate Hikes vs. Cuts Emerging market central banks typically take the lead in initiating monetary tightening and easing cycles. In 2024, their approach has shifted away from aggressive easing. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Fed Funds Rate and Financial Events History repeats itself over and over again, as Fed tightening cycles end with a financial event. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Fed Funds and Recessions Fed tightening over the past year is on an unprecedented scale. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
G4 Central Bank Balance Sheet Will central bank’s quantitative tightening increase pressure on financial markets? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy