U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…
Sovereign Ratings Map Interesting map of sovereign ratings across the world in July 2019, using Moody’s ratings. Source: Moody’s Sovereign Ratings, Aswath Damodaran
Demographics – Old Age Dependency Ratio The world’s population is ageing and demographics explain low interest rates. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. GDP and S&P 500: Change in the Three Years After a Recession Began U.S. GDP has declined by about 1.4% over two quarters since World War II, and in the worst recessions, the S&P 500 has been cut in half. Image: The Washington Post
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Valuation and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates, maybe for a long time. The chart shows that an aging population affects yields. You may also like “Debt and Demographics.” Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Bond Market Hedged and Unhedged Investors are frantically searching for yield, knowing that 25% of all bonds in the world trade at negative interest rates. Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…
Global Nominal GDP After the U.S., China is the world’s second largest economy. Its nominal GDP represents 16% of world GDP, compared to 24% for the United States. Image: Scotiabank
S&P 500 All-Time Highs Great chart showing the 1,140 all-time highs of the S&P 500 since the Second World War. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Debt and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments