Search Results for: economic

Global PMI & US ISM Manufacturing Indices This chart suggests that Global PMI Manufacturing Index leads US ISM Manufacturing Index by two months. Image: Capital Economics

Most Important Variables Explaining the S&P 500’s YoY Return Today, the two most important variables explaining the S&P 500’s YoY return: FOMC rate change and U.S. hard economic data.  Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index The Cass Freight Index (white bar chart) is a measure of monthly North American freight activity. It suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index (green line) could go lower if the U.S. economic slowdown persists. Image: Greg S.

Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth

The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy US-China trade conflict, US corporate debt burden, and emerging-markets crisis are the main global risks according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Image: World Economic Forum

Brent Price vs. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield vs. S&P 500 This chart shows that oil prices are a good indicator of global economic growth and investors are concerned about a global economic slowdown. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…

Global Real M1 Growth Leads Global Manufacturing PMI by around 6 Months When global real M1 money supply growth is very low, it does not bode well for global economic activity. Image: The Wall Street Journal

Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…