U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield U.S. demographics explain the 10-year Treasury bond yield, due to low inflation. The U.S. 10-year bond yield reflects inflation and growth expectations, and working age population growth contributes to inflation and GDP growth. Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Equity Market Performance since 1914 Excellent comparison between real (adjusted for inflation) and nominal returns on U.S. equities. Image: Saxo Bank
History of the Real Federal Minimum Wage Today, the real federal minimum wage is worth 31% less than in 1968. It is also the longest period without an increase (adjusted for inflation). You may also like “Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth.” Image: Economic Policy Institute
Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…
Do You Really Think That, By Buying the S&P 500, You Never Lose Money? Well, even if it is not adjusting for inflation with dividends, this chart is very interesting. That’s the reason why we develop stock market forecasting models. Image: Frank Jurs
“Ken Fisher: Thinking in Ways That Others Do Not, with John Tamny” Great interview of Ken Fisher on: coastal redwoods, dikes and climate change, efficient markets, quantitative easing (QE) vs. inflation, humans as a group are slow to learn, recessions, Fed and interest rates, why philanthropy is bad and immoral, and why inequality is a good…
91.2% Correlation Between Gold Price and U.S. National Debt According to the National Inflation Association, there’s 91.2% correlation between gold price and U.S. national debt. The U.S. government’s public debt is now more than $22 trillion. Over the long term, the price of gold could continue to rise as debt increases. Image: U.S. Global Investors
Why Do Eurozone Bond Investors Accept Zero Long-Term Interest Rates? Because they have a deflationary view of the euro area economy. Now, investors are losing so much money just by holding German bonds in real terms (adjusted for inflation). Today, the Germany 10-Year bond yield hits 0% again. Keep in mind that raising interest rates in…
Does Surging Oil Prices Cause Recession? Historically, a rise oil prices can cause recession because high inflation tends to lead to higher interest rates. But nowadays, oil shale production in the US limits the rise in oil prices and makes it possible to avoid a future crisis like the one in 2008.
Real Three-month Yield vs. Recessions Historically prior to every recession, the three-month yield exceeded inflation by almost 200 basis points since 1960. Today, the real three-month yield (adjusted for inflation) is just above zero. If history helps us to predict the future, then this cycle should not end any time soon. Source: Bloomberg, Myron Scholes