China Credit Impulse – Reflation Cycle

China Credit Impulse – Reflation Cycle This chart shows that China credit impulse has not yet boosted relative earnings. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. Image: Fidelity Investments

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This is not good news for GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP

Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP Search trends are very different between China (manufacturing industry) and the USA/Eurozone (consumer), when forecasting real GDP. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Household Debt as a Proportion of GDP

Household Debt as a Proportion of GDP Household debt levels in China are equivalent to those in advanced economies. Image: The Wall Street Journal

China Credit Impulse Leads World Trade

China Credit Impulse Leads World Trade The chart suggests that China credit impulse leads world trade by 12 months. World trade is expected to turn positive in coming months. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Global Nominal GDP

Global Nominal GDP After the U.S., China is the world’s second largest economy. Its nominal GDP represents 16% of world GDP, compared to 24% for the United States. Image: Scotiabank

The Progression of World GDP

The Progression of World GDP This chart shows the percentage of world GDP by major countries/regions and how China’s GDP has risen steadily over the past few decades. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Why We Should Not Be Afraid By China’s Debt?

Why We Should Not Be Afraid By China’s Debt? In China, there is a high level of savings and controls on capital outflows. Currently, most of the Chinese savings are lent or invested in China. So, China’s debt reflects the Chinese savings rate. It would be much more worrying if China’s debt led to external debt,…

Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth

Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth The slowdown in the labor force in the U.S., China, Europe and Japan, represents 62% of the world’s GDP and 69% of the equity market capitalization. The labor force growth is expected to be -1% by 2055. Image: Fidelity Investments