Central Banks Actions Lead Emerging Markets Manufacturing Surveys Chart suggesting that central banks actions lead emerging markets manufacturing surveys by 8 months. The net number of EM central banks cutting rates has reached 50% of 30 central banks. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Upside and Downside Risks to the Growth Outlook – SG White & Black Swan Chart The SG swan chart shows upside and downside risks to growth forecasts on a one-year horizon. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is slowing, but historically, recessions have been preceded by a slowing in job gains and a pickup in jobless claims. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
GSER Financial Conditions Index and U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that financial conditions should improve U.S. GDP growth. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research
Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet This chart shows the Federal Reserve total assets. According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
VIX and MOVE Rolling Correlation Periods of high correlation between safe and risk assets are generally not good for balanced portfolios, because diversification is hard to find. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Correlation Matrix This grid shows the correlation between different asset classes. It is very useful for asset allocation. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Tax Adjusted EPS vs. Trend Interesting chart showing that S&P 500 tax adjusted earnings are well above the trend in the United States, and have historically preceded earning plunges. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management