Negative-Yielding Debt by Country The chart shows negative-yielding debt by country as of June 2019. Bondholders will get back less than what they paid if they hold bonds to maturity. So, in a sense, negative yield bonds are a tax on bondholders. Picture Source: Bloomberg
Contributions to U.S. GDP Growth The U.S. economy is still in expansion mode. U.S. GDP growth slowed in Q2 2019, but growth in U.S. domestic demand accelerated. Fears about an imminent recession seem overblown. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…
EUR/USD and 10-Year Rates Differential The chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a 10-year rates differential corresponds to a stronger or weaker US dollar. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Predictors The chart shows that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor of the ISM Manufacturing Index over the past two years. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Global Fixed Income Market In Different Yield Buckets Nowadays, the scarcity of yield with 20% of global bonds below 0%. Image: ICE Data Indices, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The chart suggests that the correlation between the copper/gold ratio and the US 10-year Treasury yield is still valid. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed Today, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index at 21.8 suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should remain above 50. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Dividend Payers / Non-Payers Around First Fed Rate Cut The chart shows that S&P 500 dividend payers have outperformed non-payers around the first Fed rate cut and 12 months later, because they are more attractive than bonds. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 YoY and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Image: Oxford Economics and Macrobond