U.S. Real GDP Forecast According to 37 professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, U.S. real GDP is expected to grow 2% in 2020 and should continue to improve next year. Image: Macrobond Financial
U.S. Consumer Credit The current downtrend in US consumer credit impulse could suggest a scenario of slowing growth this year. Image: Macrobond Financial
Tesla vs. The 2000 Internet Bubble While investors are betting on Tesla’s success, this chart is not a prediction on where Tesla stock is heading. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…
U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is higher than expected and continues to rebound. Image: Macrobond Financial
S&P 500 and ISM Manufacturing Index In recent history, when the ISM Manufacturing Index rose above 50, the S&P500 rose by about 2% on average over the next 3 months Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Inflation – The Rising Cost of U.S. Education and Health Care The costs of health care and education have risen faster than other goods. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 When ISM Manufacturing Index Rises Above 50 When the ISM Manufacturing Index rises above 50, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar tend to weaken, while the S&P 500 tends to rise. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
China’s Response to the Spread of the Coronavirus This chart puts the spread of the coronavirus into perspective. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Viral Outbreaks This chart shows that the impact of previous viral outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, H7N9, Ebola) on U.S. bonds was short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Buybacks Relative to Index Market Capitalization A recovery in corporate earnings could lead to a rebound in buybacks this year. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond