U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Interesting chart showing the spread between the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index over time. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives Chart showing that U.S. cyclicals sectors relative to defensive sectors are still pricing in a strong rebound in growth (R = 0.82). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Since 1975, in 6 of 11 instances, a recession did not occur when the ISM fell below 50 and remained above 45.5. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that the S&P 500 continues to price in a strong rebound in the ISM, from 49 to 54 (R = 0.62). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Although the non-manufacturing sector’s growth slowed, it continues to reflect strength for now. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should turn higher. Image: Macrobond, SEB Strategy Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart shows the nice correlation between ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives. Image: Nordea and Macrobond