Annual Average IPO Return During First Trading Day In 2026, U.S. IPOs rose 19% on average in their first trading session, edging above the 30-year median and delivering a solid first-day pop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.48%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors turned marginally bullish over the past week, but positioning is far from euphoric. It looks more like hesitation fading than conviction building. Confidence is improving, but enthusiasm is still missing. Image: The Daily Chartbook
% of Companies with Revenue Exposure to Just One Sector (TOPIX 500, MXAPJ, STOXX 600, S&P 500) The S&P 500 shows a striking level of concentration, with 61.1% of its companies relying on a single sector for revenue, leaving the index more exposed to shocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
WTI Oil Prices in Real Terms The 2026 oil shock looks far less dramatic in historical terms. It still bites, just not with the same force. Once you adjust for inflation and reduced energy intensity, today’s price levels compare more favourably than in 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
Central Bank Gold Purchases Central bank gold buying eased to 863 tonnes in 2025 from 1,092 tonnes in 2024. Buying has cooled, but official-sector demand remains well above historical standards and continues to play a strategic role in reserve diversification. Image: Real Investment Advice
Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for U.S. stocks, averaging just 2.1%. But when April rallies more than 5%, history flips the script: since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 6.6% gain, with a median return of 10%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 May often looks flat for U.S. stocks on paper, but the ride is rarely smooth, with plenty of swings before the dust settles. Image: Topdown Charts
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Over the past four weeks, inflows into risk assets have outpaced those into safer funds, pointing to a shift in investor appetite toward higher-return bets. With confidence rebuilding, markets are tilting back toward risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations across many sectors and styles remain stretched, leaving investors with little margin for error. That’s what makes this market tricky. If sentiment shifts, there’s hardly any cushion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The market used to be a mirror. Now it acts more like a megaphone. Ten mega-caps account for 40% of the S&P 500, stretching valuations and amplifying volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research