Major Oil Supply Disruptions

Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Manufacturing’s Share of the U.S. Economy

Manufacturing’s Share of the U.S. Economy Manufacturing accounts for only 10% of U.S. GDP, but 25% to 45% of the market response. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Demographics – Dow Jones and Generational Peaks

Demographics – Dow Jones and Generational Peaks This chart shows that generational peaks are associated with major market tops. GenX peaked in 2018 and Millennials don’t peak until 2038. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

A Hall of Mirrors in Monetary Policy?

A Hall of Mirrors in Monetary Policy? This chart suggests a feedback loop between bond market pricing and central bank decisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Equities and The World: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion

U.S. Equities and The World: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion Since the 2009 low, the strong performance of the U.S. markets comes from earnings growth (73%) and multiple expansion (27%). You may also like “S&P 500 Return: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Cash Return Yield by Sector and Region

S&P 500 Cash Return Yield by Sector and Region Currently, the S&P 500 cash return yield (buybacks + dividends) is 5.2%, the highest since 2011. That’s much more than Europe, Japan and emerging markets. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

“Ken Fisher: Thinking in Ways That Others Do Not, with John Tamny”

“Ken Fisher: Thinking in Ways That Others Do Not, with John Tamny” Great interview of Ken Fisher on: coastal redwoods, dikes and climate change, efficient markets, quantitative easing (QE) vs. inflation, humans as a group are slow to learn, recessions, Fed and interest rates, why philanthropy is bad and immoral, and why inequality is a good…