Core Inflation Difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) Leads EUR/USD This chart suggests that the core inflation difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) leads the EUR/USD by four months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Image: Credit Suisse
China: Chinese Firms Reliance on USD-denominated Debt Chinese firms reliance on USD-denominated debt is lower than other emerging markets. But a weakened yuan would hurt Chinese firms. Image: Institute of International Finance
U.S. Dollar to China Yuan (USD/CNY) Leads Semiconductor Sales This chart suggests that the U.S. Dollar to China Yuan (USD/CNY) leads semiconductor sales by four months. Keep a close eye on USD/CNY. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
EUR/USD and 10-Year Rates Differential The chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a 10-year rates differential corresponds to a stronger or weaker US dollar. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Share of Market Value in Bloomberg Barclays USD IG Since 1990, the amount of BBB-rated bonds has doubled. This is only one step away from junk bonds. Keep in mind that many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but they are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds. So, any drop in the credit ratings could…
Net U.S. Dollar Positioning When USD postioning is very light, USD tended to move higher. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.
$11 Trillion Bonds Globally Trade At Negative Interest Rates The total amount of negative interest rates climbed to USD 11 trillion. Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing so much money in real terms. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research