Where Is the Credit Cycle Headed?

Where Is the Credit Cycle Headed? “Typically, once the horse leaves the barn on the domestic credit cycle, there’s no turning back…” We all know that never ends well. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

What About the Predictive Power of the Fed?

What About the Predictive Power of the Fed? As former Fed policymaker Narayana Kocherlakota said in 2016: “Don’t rely on FOMC forecasts of future fed funds rates.” Why? Because the economy is often shaken by crises and does not evolve as expected. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

QE to Infinity and Beyond?

QE to Infinity and Beyond? Analysts say the Fed will resume and buy “just” U.S. Treasuries next year. The Fed’s balance sheet should rise past its historic peak. Image: Bloomberg – Cartoon: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

Is Tesla Stock a Good Investment?

Is Tesla Stock a Good Investment? Ouch, Tesla stock is down from $377 to $196 in just 23 weeks. Tesla is not a tech company, but a car company. It isn’t making as much money as expected. The future of Tesla is far from certain, with billions in debt coming due soon. Image: Hedgeye Risk…

Is Bitcoin on Fire Again?

Is Bitcoin on Fire Again? Bitcoin +102% YTD vs. S&P 500 YTD performance of 12.98%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

Does the Sharing Economy Really Know How to Share?

Does the Sharing Economy Really Know How to Share? As Michael A. Gayed pointed out, “Amazing how companies that enable the “sharing economy” make no profit, isn’t it?” The question to ask, does the sharing economy really know how to share? Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

Saying No To the Unimportant Things…

Saying No to the Unimportant Things… “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.” -Warren Buffett Saying no to the unimportant things, but saying yes to the things that really matter. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market?

How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…

Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments?

Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments? Keep in mind that most IPOs lose money for investors after 5 years. Images: CNBC, Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969!  Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum and that’s good news. See how the U.S. productivity has increased under Trump. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC