U.S. Headline Inflation and U.S. Core PCE inflation According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. PCE inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target by 2025, potentially leading to a more predictable and stable economic environment for U.S. consumers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation For the past three months, U.S. core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation, has consistently exceeded the 2% target. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Economy A recent Deutsche Bank survey found that 45% of participants predict a “no-landing” scenario for the U.S. economy by the end of 2024. This suggests no recession and inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Financial Conditions and U.S. Recessions The Fed may face challenges due to looser financial conditions, as it requires tighter conditions in order to effectively curb inflation towards its 2% target. Will the Fed adopt a more hawkish stance next month? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Monthly Chart The gradual approach of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield towards the secular target carries significant implications for various sectors of the economy and financial markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – U.S. 10-Year Real Yields and S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E U.S. 10-year real yields help explain the stock market valuation. UBS targets 4400 for the S&P 500 for 2021. Image: UBS
Sensitivity of S&P 500 Price to Real Rates and Breakeven Inflation Goldman Sachs expects breakeven inflation will continue to rise. The year-end S&P 500 price targets of 4300 this year and 4600 in 2022 remain unchanged. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Path of the S&P 500 by the End of 2020 and Mid-Year 2021 Goldman Sachs maintains its S&P 500 price target to 3600 by the end of 2020, and its S&P 500 price target to 3800 by mid-year 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Bull/Base/Bear Forecasts for June 2021 Morgan Stanley is bullish, raising its June 2021 S&P 500 target to 3,350 (base case scenario). Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Forecast – New Path of the S&P 500 Market in 2020 Goldman Sachs has set a price target of 3000 by the end of 2020, and a new mid-year S&P 500 target of 2400. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research