Search Results for: global trade

Valuation – Relative Fwd P/E of U.S. vs. Rest of World How long will the U.S. continue to trade near record levels relative to the rest of the world? Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 (SPY ETF) and Barrels of Oil The long stocks/short oil trade has been a winning strategy since 2008. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Bond Yields, U.S. Dollar and Stock Market According to BofA, the biggest summer pain trade would be a rise in bond yields, a falling U.S. dollar and a sideways stock market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Sector Return on Equity vs. Price to Book Valuation This chart suggests that sectors trade closely to their return on equity implied valuations (R² = 0.87). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Current P/E Valuation Based on 2021 EPS Scenarios Goldman Sachs baseline forecast for S&P 500 earnings in 2021 is $170, and the downside forecast is $115. Today, the S&P 500 trades at 19.5x the buy-side estimate of EPS. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Cyclicals vs. Defensives It’s all about sector rotation: the cyclicals vs. defensives trade is now pricing a growth acceleration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Core Capital Goods Shipment and Non-residential Business Fixed Investment (Capex) Is the “phase one” US-China trade deal enough to reverse the slowdown? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Liquidity Premium and IG Bonds The spread between low liquid and high liquid IG bonds is widening, despite the rally and the belief of an improvement in US-China trade tensions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe