ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 1-Month Return

ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 1-Month Return The current S&P 500 option implied 1-month return distribution is pricing a low probability of a right tail relative to historical realised. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Since 1975, in 6 of 11 instances, a recession did not occur when the ISM fell below 50 and remained above 45.5. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that the S&P 500 continues to price in a strong rebound in the ISM,  from 49 to 54 (R = 0.62). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Manufacturing’s Share of the U.S. Economy

Manufacturing’s Share of the U.S. Economy Manufacturing accounts for only 10% of U.S. GDP, but 25% to 45% of the market response. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index

American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

ISM PMI and S&P 500

ISM PMI and S&P 500 What does a cooling in U.S. manufacturing growth mean for the S&P 500 in the coming months? Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research