U.S. Recession – Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes – Number of States with Negative Growth Recession risks are still increasing in the United States. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Unemployment Rate Consensus Forecasts Is the U.S. labor market too hot for the Federal Reserve’s liking? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Federal Funds Rate vs. Wages and Salaries Is the Federal Reserve behind the curve on wage growth? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Companies’ Mentions of “Inflation” per Earnings Call S&P 500 company mentions of “inflation” jumped 900% year-over-year. Can the Federal Reserve really fix this by printing more money? Image: BofA Global Research
Fed MBS Holdings and FHFA House Price Index Despite a strong U.S. housing market, the Federal Reserve continues to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – TIPS and Equity Sector Fund Flows Strong fund inflows into TIPS, materials, energy and financials. Will the Federal Reserve let the U.S. economy run hot? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – ETF Assets Under Management Assets under management in TIPS ETFs surge to record high, as the Federal Reserve lets the U.S. economy run hot. Image: Topdown Charts
10-Year Inflation Expectations The Federal Reserve is not worried about inflation, so far. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Inflation Expectations from Professional Forecasters Will the Federal Reserve let inflation run hot for a while? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Fed Funds and NFIB Jobs Hard to Fill Is the Federal Reserve behind the curve? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Sentiment – U.S. Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) The EU recovery fund provides more support for the euro. But is the reign of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency under threat? Image: BofA Global Research FX and Rates Sentiment Survey