May
18
2026
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Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle
Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling 17.5% on average. The flip side is striking: one year after the low, stocks have been consistently higher, up almost 32%.
Image: Carson Investment Research