S&P 500 Average Performance - Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome

The S&P 500 performance 90 days before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner.

If the S&P 500 is up in the 90 days leading to election day, the incumbent party usually wins. This is true for 90% of past 100 years and 100% since 1984.

Image: Strategas Research Partners

S&P 500 Average Performance - Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome