S&P 500 Average Performance - Presidential Election Years & Incumbent Party Outcome 1936-2016

The S&P 500 has been a great indicator in the three months prior to the U.S. presidential election. Historically, the S&P 500’s performance has been 87% accurate in predicting the winner of the election. When the S&P 500’s performance was positive, the incumbent party tended to win.

Image: Strategas Research Partners

S&P 500 Average Performance - Presidential Election Years & Incumbent Party Outcome 1936-2016