U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Last Monday, our Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator flashed bullish—and the S&P 500 closed 0.44% higher. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian…
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples With S&P 500 earnings estimates running high and valuations stretched, the risk is that any earnings or economic disappointment could trigger sharp market volatility. Image: Real Investment Advice
Scatter Plot Returns of P/E Multiples and S&P 500 1-Year Returns The weak link between the P/E ratio and the S&P 500’s one-year performance shows why investors are better off keeping their eyes on the long game, not short-term valuations. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and Nasdaq vs. 1996-2001 Analog With policy easing expected to run into 2026, will U.S. equities continue to mirror the boom years of 1996 to 2001? Image: Alpine Macro
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total With the S&P 500 so top-heavy in its ten biggest stocks—well beyond what earnings alone would justify—the index is unusually exposed to volatility, weak diversification, and sector distortions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Tight high-yield spreads signal strong market confidence, but they also raise red flags by potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities and feeding investor complacency by making risks seem less significant than they are. Image: Topdown Charts
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With a reading of 52, the Fear & Greed Index is neutral, indicating that market participants are neither overly fearful nor overly greedy, but maintain cautious optimism. Image: Cable News Network
AAII Sentiment Survey The AAII bull-bear spread has flipped back into positive territory, hinting at a modest pickup in U.S. retail investor optimism—though sentiment still looks more neutral than outright bullish. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Underlying U.S. Real GDP Growth The AI-driven tech boom has kept the U.S. economy from slipping into recession in 2025, but whether the rally can last is far from certain—and a pullback in investment could quickly tip the balance. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 86.24, the reading points to strong confidence among active managers, who are keeping sizable equity allocations that reflect optimism but stop short of exuberance. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM