Author: isabelnet

Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup

U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past Presidential Terms Starting on Election Day During President Biden’s tenure, U.S. stocks have surged by 76% starting on election day, reinforcing historical data suggesting that Democratic administrations often correlate with stronger market performance compared to their Republican counterparts. Image: Carson Investment Research

Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio A high CAPE ratio suggests caution but isn’t a reliable market timing indicator. Markets may remain overvalued for extended periods, typically leading to subdued long-term equity returns. Image: Deutsche Bank

Real Returns for U.S. Dollar-based Assets by Quarter Century While there have been periods of volatility and negative returns, real stock market returns over the past 25 years have been positive and in line with long-term historical averages. Image: Deutsche Bank

Performance – Cyclicals Outperformance Following the election, U.S. cyclical stocks have significantly outperformed, reflecting investor optimism about the new administration’s pro-growth policies and economic resilience. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

S&P 500 Performance When >2% Daily Gain at an All-Time High Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated robust performance in the year following a daily gain of over 2% at an all-time high, with a median increase of 12.4%. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Price Target Following the U.S. elections, strategist Ed Yardeni has raised his S&P 500 targets to 6,100 for 2024, 7,000 for 2025, 8,000 for 2026, and predicts it will reach 10,000 by the end of the decade. Image: Bloomberg

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 rising by an impressive 4.7% last week, bulls are in high spirits, while bears are under pressure and seeking help! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

S&P 500 Weekly % Changes The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain of 2024 and its third-strongest Presidential Election week since 1928, rising 4.7% as investors cheered Donald Trump’s victory and the prospect of business-friendly policies. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth and S&P 500 YoY Performance The divergence between earnings revisions and S&P 500 performance suggests that investors are looking beyond current analyst estimates, potentially betting on stronger-than-expected corporate performance. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Active vs. Passive Fund Flows The trend of investors shifting from active to passive funds has accelerated significantly over the past decade, driven by cost considerations, performance outcomes, and evolving market practices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research