U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index U.S. equity sentiment appears to be at relatively depressed levels heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election, due to heightened uncertainty, market volatility, and concerns about potential policy shifts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Total Equity Fund Flows Contrary to the usual caution observed in U.S. election years, 2024 has seen robust equity fund inflows, defying the typical pattern of investors waiting until after the elections. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The combination of declining contributions from key sectors like shelter and transportation is expected to lead to a notable slowdown in U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Market Concentration vs. 10-Year Annualized Forward Returns High concentration in the S&P 500 may boost short-term performance, but it often signals lower future returns, particularly during non-recessionary periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Presidential Election Recent prediction market data indicates that the gap between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is narrowing. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonality Returns Will the U.S. stock market keep investors smiling? The three-month period of November through January has traditionally been the strongest for U.S. stock market performance. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns on Halloween When Up YTD Going into the Spooky Day The S&P 500 rarely experiences major declines on Halloween. In the last three decades, when the index was positive for the year, its worst performance on October 31st was just a 0.38% drop. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Predictable U.S. Presidential Elections While U.S. elections can create anxiety and volatility due to policy uncertainties, predictable elections often coincide with continued market trends and reduced market volatility. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Days Without a Correction to 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 is experiencing an impressive streak of 253 trading days without a correction to its 200-day moving average, indicating strong bullish momentum that could potentially continue in the near term. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real Total Return Performance of U.S. 60/40 Portfolio The term “lost decade” for the traditional 60/40 portfolio holds historical significance, especially during the period from 2000 to 2009, when investors faced a real loss. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research