Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have successfully anticipated every recession in the United States, highlighting their importance as an economic indicator. Will this time be an exception? Image: Real Investment Advice
% of Days per Year to Make a New All-Time High for the S&P 500 The S&P 500’s performance this year reflects a strong bullish trend, with over one-fifth of trading days achieving new all-time highs, underscoring a favorable market environment. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and S&P 500 Cumulative Net Up Volume Recent upside breakouts in S&P 500 cumulative net up volume, along with other bullish indicators, suggest that the S&P 500 may continue to reach new highs, indicating a robust market environment. Image: BofA Global Research
Sentiment – Global Equity Risk-Love The Global Equity Risk-Love indicator, currently at the 68th percentile, has moved out of the euphoria territory, allowing for potential upside as we approach year-end. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or signs of slowing growth. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Monthly New Highs per Month Since 1950, the S&P 500 has achieved 1,314 new all-time highs, highlighting its ability to rebound from market declines and continue its growth trajectory. Such growth periods often lead to clusters of new highs. Image: Carson Investment Research
Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, in response to changing economic conditions, marks the second-longest wait for such a reduction in history. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker currently remains below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, which is a crucial component of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTA Positioning in U.S. Rates While CTAs’ current long positions in U.S. rates reflect a bullish outlook, they also serve as a potential contrarian indicator for savvy investors looking to capitalize on market reversals. Image: Deutsche Bank