ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories suggests a positive upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with new orders increasing at a more rapid pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Real Estate Flows The longest streak of inflows into REITs since March 2022 highlights investor confidence in the long-term value and resilience of the real estate sector, driven by expectations of potential Fed rate cuts. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Real U.S. Household Net Worth vs. GDP The current wealth of American households, marked by an unprecedented gap between net worth and GDP, raises concerns about sustainability. A correction may occur if asset prices begin to realign with economic fundamentals. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Households Allocation to Corporate Equities as a % of Financial Assets Historically, periods of high household equity allocation have been followed by lower market returns, suggesting that current trends may signal potential risks for future investors. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. Dollar Forecast BofA’s outlook suggests a continued decline of the U.S. dollar until the end of 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and changing global economic conditions. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance After >20% Pre-Election Years Following a pre-election year gain exceeding 20%, the S&P 500 index has consistently shown positive growth during the election year, with an average increase in value of 11.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Weekly Loan Fund Flows Investors are exhibiting a cautious approach, as evidenced by significant outflows from U.S. loan funds. Image: BofA Global Research
Aggregate G6 Central Bank Balance Sheet The aggregate G6 central bank balance sheet is expected to continue decreasing in 2024 and 2025 as central banks unwind their pandemic-era asset purchase programs through quantitative tightening measures. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Dollar Index A recovery in risk sentiment and higher equity prices has coincided with a weakening of the U.S. dollar, suggesting that investors are shifting their preferences towards riskier assets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and NYSE Daily Advancing Volume 10x More than Daily Declining Volume When the daily advancing volume on the NYSE is ten times greater than the daily declining volume, it typically leads to higher S&P 500 prices over the next 12 months, with an average gain of 12.8% since 1979. Image: Carson Investment Research
Flows into Equity and Bonds Funds Substantial inflows into equity and bond funds are fueled by investor optimism regarding falling inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation