What Is the Most Likely Outcome for the Global Economy in the Next 12 Months? FMS investors are anticipating a “soft landing” as the most likely outcome for the global economy, which implies a gradual and controlled slowdown rather than a sharp or disruptive downturn. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Market – Gain Needed to Recover from Loss in an Investment The greater the potential loss, the more difficult it becomes to recover, potentially leading to significant long-term impacts on an investment portfolio. Image: Carson Investment Research
Percentage of Countries with Manufacturing PMI Above 50 While the global manufacturing sector faced headwinds in mid-2023, the latest data suggest a gradual recovery is underway, with the percentage of countries in expansion nearly doubling from September 2023 to the present. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 When the VIX exceeded 50, the S&P 500 was higher a year later in 91 out of 92 instances since 1990, with an average gain of 33%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Going into a Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Trigger Event The recent triggering of the Sahm Rule indicator has diverged from the typical behavior of U.S. equities seen in the lead-up to a recession. Investors should be cautious before drawing conclusions about a potential U.S. recession. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
Bitcoin Market Price and Average Cost of Production Bitcoin’s market price currently exceeds the average cost of production, estimated by JP Morgan, creating a profitable scenario for miners. Image: J.P. Morgan
Europe’s GRANOLAS Stocks and Market Capitalization While Europe may not have the Magnificent Seven, it does have the GRANOLAS, which represents Glaxosmithkline, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oreal, LVMH, Astrazeneca, SAP, and Sanofi. Image: Alpine Macro
Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals and defensives are useful indicators of investor sentiment. As investors expect economic contractions, they often shift towards defensives, resulting in their outperformance compared to cyclicals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stocks – Average Stock Correlation in the S&P 500 The current trend in the S&P 500 indicates a significant rise in stock correlation, suggesting a more homogenous market behavior that could pose risks for investors relying on diversification strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
The Federal Reserve and Financial Crisis While the current rate hiking cycle hasn’t caused widespread financial crises yet, it’s premature to say it’s entirely different. The Fed must carefully balance controlling inflation, achieving maximum employment, and ensuring financial stability. Image: Real Investment Advice