Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth The widening gap between U.S. home prices and wage growth has significant implications for housing affordability and economic inequality, making it harder for lower-income individuals and families to afford homes. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Headline Inflation and U.S. Core PCE inflation According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. PCE inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target by 2025, potentially leading to a more predictable and stable economic environment for U.S. consumers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq-100 Index, Short Interest as a Percent of Shares Outstanding The falling short interest in the Nasdaq 100 is seen as a potential bearish signal, as it reduces a source of support for the market and makes stocks more vulnerable to negative news and price declines. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Index Weight of 5 Largest Companies in Nasdaq 100 The Nasdaq 100 index is heavily concentrated in a few large tech companies. While this reflects the strength and innovation of these tech giants, it also introduces risks if sentiment shifts or if regulatory scrutiny increases. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hedge Funds – Net Buys Hedge funds continue to hit the sell button, resulting in significant outflows over the past 3 months. Image: BofA Securities
Flows by Year into Active vs. Passive Funds Passive funds are growing in popularity as investors prioritize lower fees, potential tax advantages, and doubt active fund managers’ ability to consistently outperform the market. As a result, active funds are facing capital outflows. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 – Factor Signal for Market Peaks Based on Quality, Momentum, and Valuation The combination of quality and momentum factors outperforming vs. history, along with elevated valuations, could signal that the market is approaching a peak, prompting investors to adjust their portfolios accordingly. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 and CFTC CME E-mini S&P 500 Asset Manager Institutional Net Total/Futures The net long position held by institutional asset managers on E-mini S&P 500 futures has been rising, with the potential to reach the peak positioning level observed in early 2020. Image: BofA Global Research
Nasdaq Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week and 200-Week MAs The Nasdaq may potentially reach 18,700 and 22,400, given the possibility of a catch-up trade within a secular bull market presidential cycle. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart The outlook for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield suggests a declining trend in the fourth quarter of 2024 and into the first quarter of 2025. Image: BofA Technical Research