U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or signs of slowing growth. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Monthly New Highs per Month Since 1950, the S&P 500 has achieved 1,314 new all-time highs, highlighting its ability to rebound from market declines and continue its growth trajectory. Such growth periods often lead to clusters of new highs. Image: Carson Investment Research
Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, in response to changing economic conditions, marks the second-longest wait for such a reduction in history. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker currently remains below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, which is a crucial component of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTA Positioning in U.S. Rates While CTAs’ current long positions in U.S. rates reflect a bullish outlook, they also serve as a potential contrarian indicator for savvy investors looking to capitalize on market reversals. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Real Prime Rate The 50bps rate cut helps small businesses by lowering borrowing costs. The Fed’s cut aims to stimulate economic activity and support the growth of these essential companies, which play a crucial role in the overall economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Weekly U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity funds have seen substantial inflows amounting to $31.74 billion, reflecting a strong positive sentiment among investors, particularly following the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates last week. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Rate Cuts Goldman Sachs forecasts a series of 25bp interest rate cuts through mid-2025, aimed at supporting economic growth amid fluctuating inflation rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 TTM YoY EPS vs. Fed Funds Target Traditionally, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, corporate profits tend to decelerate. However, this’s not the case today, highlighting the unique economic landscape we face. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. vs. Developed Market Equities (ex-US) Price Relative While there is potential for U.S. equities to maintain their lead in the near term due to strong earnings and market dynamics, historical cycles suggest that this dominance may wane as international markets recover and valuations adjust. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy