Market Breadth – Percentage of MSCI AC World Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average The decline in prices and selling pressure in April did not have a negative impact on the breadth of the market. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
Inequality – Distribution of Stock Ownership Stock ownership in the United States is concentrated among the top 10% of Americans, who own almost 90% of the stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Money Market Assets Under Management Following a Fed rate cut, money market funds typically experience outflows 12 months later as investors adapt portfolios and manage risk exposure in response to shifting interest rates and market conditions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Japan Stocks vs. China Stocks Despite economic challenges and geopolitical risks, Chinese equities have rallied over the past 3 months. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Earnings Estimate Revision Ratio The S&P 500 earnings estimate revision ratio has shown significant improvement, reflecting positive trends in earnings and expectations. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Fed Funds Rate Expectations Despite the initial anticipation of multiple rate cuts in 2024 as suggested by the Fed’s “dot plot,” the current market sentiment indicates a more reserved outlook, with fewer rate cuts in 2024. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Measures of U.S. Underlying Inflation BofA expects a first rate cut in December 2024 due to the stickiness of U.S. underlying inflation. Image: BofA Global Research
Are You More Likely to Increase or Decrease Bond Portfolio Duration Over the Coming Days/Weeks? JPM reports that only 29% of their clients are considering reducing the duration of their bond portfolios, indicating a strong tendency towards potentially increasing or maintaining the duration. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 LTM EPS Deutsche Bank is confident in its revised 2024 S&P 500 EPS base case forecast, which now stands at $258, up from $250. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Personal Saving Rate and U.S. Household The U.S. personal saving rate remains well below its long-term average, reflecting a trend of decreased savings and raising concerns about individuals’ financial security. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee