S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets The sell-in-May effect may be more relevant in bear markets. In bull markets, it may be seen as a missed opportunity for potential gains, given the positive momentum and upward trends typically observed in the market. Image: Topdown Charts
Fed Rates Cut Since the Fed’s last hike in July 2023, their ongoing 10-month pause is exceeding the average duration. Extended periods of “higher for longer” policies often lead to unfavorable outcomes. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Cumulative Bond Flows Government bonds and investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds have experienced substantial inflows over the last 12 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Fund Flows Record inflows into mortgage-backed securities over the past week highlight the growing interest in this asset class among investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
How the S&P 500 Performance After Big Starts to Previous Election Years After a strong start to the election year, the U.S. stock market tends to regain momentum towards the end of Q2 and generally continues to perform well until the end of the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Treasury Price vs. 200-Day Moving Average Should investors continue shorting U.S. bonds until bond yields exceed 5%? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Since 1790 The trajectory and duration of the U.S. bond bear market can be influenced by factors such as inflation, economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Housing – Global House Prices With a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, U.S. house prices are posing a greater challenge for prospective homebuyers in their pursuit of purchasing a home. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core PCE Inflation For the past three months, U.S. core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation, has consistently exceeded the 2% target. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and Leveraged Long vs. Short ETF Volumes The degree of activity in leveraged long vs. short U.S. equity ETFs has experienced a substantial decline as sentiment shifts. Image: Topdown Charts